Ever wonder why the growth you read about feels or seems different than the growth you experience?
We’ve all seen and lived it.
Industry groups proclaiming how our given industry will grow by X% this year to Y$.
And yet, the world we live in seems different.
Even if we’re growing, it may not feel like growth compared to others in our category.
Why?
Inflation and population are two big reasons.
Most use price increases to keep pace with inflation (so as not to disrupt their relative positioning).
Population should be like the wind at your back (yes, we can stray into behavior shifts, etc., but at a high level, the point holds).
So the question becomes, once you net out both factors, how (much) did you grow?
Take food.
Both Food at Home (think grocery) and Food Away from Home (think restaurants).
The USDA ERS released its annual report last month.
Their time series goes from 1997 to 2023.
26 years.
Only you can decide if the rate of growth you realized in your business net of those factors was “good” or not.
To me, the fascinating story is when you push into the channel review.
Especially when you net out the inflation and population change.
You see the importance of getting your distribution (and related positioning) right.
If you were in the grocery business in 1997 and stayed in the grocery business, you’d likely feel very different about your business than if you had also expanded into a warehouse club and mail-order/home delivery.
This is not to say one should get into every channel; choice and timing are critical.
